A team of researchers from PSI has released its preliminary findings on the dynamics of multidimensional poverty in Ethiopia. The team, consisting of Dr. Beneberu Assefa, Dr. Admassu Tesso, and Dr. Tilahun Tefera, released the key findings of their study on February 15, 2023.
Dr. Beneberu Assefa, who presented the research report, said poverty is a serious, complex, and multidimensional problem. The proportion of the world's population living in extreme poverty is declining. However, about 9.2% of the world's population still lives in extreme poverty for less than $1.90 a day.
About 1.3 billion people in 107 developing countries are also affected by multidimensional poverty, according to Dr. Beneberu. Economic, social, political, cultural, geographic, and other variables all contribute to poverty, which has a variety of effects on those who are classified as poor. The impact of these factors varies from place to place, as the development prospects of different countries differ. More than 40% of the world's poor currently live in unstable, violent, or conflict-affected economies; this percentage is expected to rise to 67% over the next decade. Nearly half of the poor people in sub-Saharan Africa live in just five countries: Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in the world, with a PCI of $960.
Dr. Beneberu noted that the number of people living below the national poverty line has decreased from 44% in 2000 to 19% in 2021 (FDRE Planning and Development Commission, 2021). In Ethiopia, 68.7% of the population is multidimensionally poor, while another 18.4% is at risk of becoming multidimensionally poor. Although poverty has declined in Ethiopia, recent assessments indicate that progress has been uneven between urban and rural areas. According to the Human Development Index (HDI), poverty in Ethiopia has declined but is still quite high. Consequently, poverty is a critical development issue that requires political attention, as it can threaten the country's survival and stability.
Dr. Beneberu explained the specific research objective of the study, which is to examine the dynamics and determinants of poverty in Ethiopia using the multidimensional poverty index (MPI). It first aims to establish asset indices and calculate the percentage of assets withheld from each population group in Ethiopia over time. Second, to assess how multi-layered poverty, prevalence, and intensity have changed over time in Ethiopia. Third, to assess how multidimensional poverty, its prevalence and intensity have evolved in different Ethiopian regions, residential areas, gender of the family head, and age groups. Fourth, it will analyze the determinants of multidimensional poverty in different population groups over time. Finally, the study will recommend place-specific and evidence-based interventions. To achieve the above research objectives, he explained the methodology used by the research team. The analytical models used were the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) and the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) by Alkire & Foster (2011).
Alkire and Foster's MPI measures the extent to which individuals are deprived of basic human needs such as education, health, and standard of living. The SLF measures household deprivation of key capitals (physical, financial, natural, and human). The final measure of the MPI is sensitive to the degree of deprivation among the poor and captures the combined distribution of deprivations, as opposed to the standard monetary method. Moreover, because it is a direct measure, comparisons do not need to adjust for price differences between rural and urban areas or for inflation. Data are from the 2011, 2016, and 2019 waves of the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS). The ordered probit model was used to assess the determinants of multidimensional poverty in Ethiopia.
In conclusion, Dr. Beneberu explained the results of the study in terms of livelihood deprivation indices, characteristics and trends of multidimensional poverty, prevalence, depth, and overall extent of multidimensional poverty over time, dynamics of multidimensional poverty, determinants of multidimensional poverty, comparisons of multidimensional poverty in rural and urban areas, and comparisons of multidimensional poverty by gender of the family head.
Dr. Beneberu Assefa concluded that the deprivation in school attendance is significant among school-age children, meaning that a significant percentage of children nationwide are not in school. This has policy implications. The Afar, Somali, and other pastoralist regions and rural areas are particularly disadvantaged in school attendance.
Thus, to meet the SDGs, which call for "ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education and promoting lifelong learning opportunities for all," Ethiopia must make significant progress. To better address the movement of pastoralist households, the government needs to change education policies and curricula at various levels. Additional primary and secondary schools could be built in rural areas, and experienced teachers could be hired there at competitive salaries. Child nutritional deficiencies have declined, but are still a serious problem in both rural and urban areas. With the rising cost of fresh fruits, vegetables, and high-protein diets, preventing nutritional deficiencies in children may be a long way off.
Therefore, both urban and rural residents need to be trained on how to grow and prepare a variety of fruits, vegetables, and poultry for family consumption. To teach people how to vary their meals, home economics experts must be trained and deployed in both rural and urban areas. Improving food security involves not only increasing food production, but also educating people about food, its nutritional value, and how to prepare it so it can be a regular part of their diet. Lack of improved sanitation, safe drinking water, fuel for cooking, access to electricity, and quality of housing have long been major problems in Ethiopia. This means that achieving a number of SDG targets, such as ensuring the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all (Goal 6), ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all (Goal 7), and creating inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable cities and human settlements (Goal 11), is nearly impossible.
Especially in metropolitan areas, the government needs to engage a broad range of stakeholders in developing and implementing creative, affordable housing options. It is time to provide an off-grid energy source to these rural communities, as the majority of the rural population has limited access to grid-connected electricity. In an off-grid system, a small amount of electricity is generated on-site and distributed to a small number of users through a grid that is not connected to the main power grid. In rural areas where electricity infrastructure may be inadequate, off-grid power is very helpful. Such rural electrification can also help diversify business activities in rural areas and eventually bring the majority of people out of multidimensional poverty. It has also been noted that deprivation in livestock and land ownership has increased rapidly over time.
Lack of access to land can make it difficult to own animals, which can affect other indicators. This reinforces the need for coordinated action among numerous sectors and ministries, often at different levels of government. To prevent population growth, which primarily contributes to a shortage of arable land, training in rural family planning is critical. To move from land-intensive crop production to a land-intensive, cost-effective, and nutrient-rich production system, land-saving technology would also need to be introduced. In this context, the use of land-saving crops could help prevent persistent child malnutrition. In Ethiopia, the poor are getting poorer while the rich are getting richer. This is a clear indication that the growth of the Ethiopian economy comes mainly from the service sector, which employs disproportionately fewer people compared to the agricultural sector. It was also noted that multidimensional poverty is most prevalent in rural areas.
In both rural and urban areas, children under the age of nine are more affected by multidimensional poverty than other age groups. Therefore, it is important to expand school feeding programs to rural areas and promote schooling specifically there. In addition, it is advisable to expand the reach of programs that provide a productive safety net, especially in rural areas. Male-headed families are more likely to experience multidimensional poverty in Ethiopia than female-headed households in terms of poverty prevalence, poverty intensity, and adjusted headcount ratio. However, multidimensional poverty has declined rapidly over time among male-headed households, in contrast to female-headed households. Thus, multidimensional poverty among male-headed households is essentially transitory, while female-headed households are more likely to be trapped in chronic poverty. This calls for gender-specific policy interventions. The qualitative research that follows is intended to complement this quantitative research.
Following Dr. Beneberu’s remarks, participants in the internal validation workshop asked several questions. Some of these were about how you managed this extensive data, how each sector is affected by poverty, and how you will make recommendations for all sectors. Participants also asked the presenter to explain the difference between growth and development in the Ethiopian context. They also raised issues of delineation, different sample sizes, and how people perceive poverty. They also asked to look at the Ethiopian context in 2019 as many shocks affected the economy. They were also asked to explain their data source and why they used this specific data, which came from different international organizations. Overall, participants asked the presenters to match their research findings with the reality on the ground.
Finally, the presenter said his team is willing to consider the participants' suggestions and comments and reminded the audience how complex the topic was, right down to the definition of poverty.